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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."